Sugo-Fest Event



Sugo-Fest is a special Rare Recruit Rate Up event. In this event you have higher chances to recruit powerful characters. You can access Sugo-Fest through the Tavern through the Rare Recruit option (which costs 5 gems per use). This event lasts only few days (early Sugos lasted one day, but more recent Sugos can be week-long) and comes out periodically (roughly every two weeks since late 2015, it was more of a monthly event before). Many Sugo-Fests are the times where new characters are revealed and enter the Rare Rercuit pool for the first time (hence each subsequent Sugo-Fest has a larger pool of characters to draw from). Since mid 2016 the usual pattern is that early month Sugo features repeats, while late month Sugo debuts new legend and often, several new Rare Recruits.

Increased likelihood of certain characters
Most Sugo Fest offer "rate up" on certain units. Each Sugo Fest offers a list of 10 or so characters which have a significantly higher chance of being drawn during it. Note that those characters are rated as 4 and 5 stars and can be also drawn during future Sugo-Fest (except for some limited time exclusive characters described below).

Some or all of those characters are guaranteed to get bonuses such as higher starting levels (sometimes, MAX) or stat boosts (basically, come with cotton candy already fed, sometimes +10 or higher), and more recently, skill ups and guaranteed sockets, up o MAX special CD and and give good socket powers. The bonuses often affect new units released for this Sugo Fest and/or the ones with increased likelihood of being drawn during it. As with many other aspects, as time goes on the bonuses get better.

10+1
Most new Sugos feature a 10+1 deal, meaning that if you spend 50 gems, you get the 11th pull for free. In addition, that +1 pull is increasingly often (details vary from sugo to sugo) something 'above average'. In either case, it is recommended to only pull in batches of 50 with the 10+1 since this effectively gives you an equivalent of 5 free gems. Or, in other words, doing single pulls for 5 gems a poster is inefficient.

What are the chances of pulling a character x?
Short answer: the odds of pulling 'a legend' are ~2%. The odds of pulling the legend that was just released are estimated at ~0.1%. The odds of pulling a 4-star revolvable (real gold) poster or its evolved 5-star are ~60%. The odds of pulling one of the newly released real god characters are between ~1-3% (they are boosted unevenly). The odds of pulling an 'older' character are several times that of getting a 'newer' character. Super-evolved version of the legends are not in the pool UNLESS a given Sugo states otherwise.

Long answer: The exact odds are unknown, because laws in 'global' countries don't require companies like Bandai to tell us that, and they don't. However, for a brief period of several weeks in early fall 2017, those rates were accessible and made public by a player for the Neko and God Usopp Sugos, resulting in the 'Sugo Controversy' as the general community did not like what we found out (primarily, that odds of drawing good characters are lower in 'global' version of the game compared to the JPN version). Shortly after that, Bandai removed the 'bug' that allowed said player to analyze the rates, but has done nothing to address issues discussed below. Key findings:

1) The odds of pulling a legend are ~2%. The odds of pulling a useful 4-star are a around 60%. The odds of trash are around 40%. Table with details (based on God Usopp's sugo): Note: Japan has a public and higher rate of Legends (at over 3% - post, post 2), which is one of the reasons people are upset (unequal treatment of global vs JPN)

Note 2: Second reason for people being upset. Japan has a lower rate of getting fake golds. Global rate of trash is higher. (Based on this post)

2) The odds of pulling a character in a given rarity are not equal and are affected by more than the rate up rates. The odds of 'older' legends (like Whitebard or Sengoku) are several times higher than those of 'newer' legend. The currently released legend has roughly equal, but not higher odds than those of older legends. The same applies to 4* (gold) posters. The ones just released have decent odds, but the ones from recent prior months have very low odds/ What that means in practice is that the odds of getting an 'old' unit are much higher than those of getting new ones, and even the 'guaranteed legend poster' means 'you'll get a legend, but is ieveral times more likely it will be an older, less helpful legend than one of the newer OP legends'.

Note: And here is the third reason. Japan doesn't prioritize older legends / characters over new ones. (Based on this post)

3) There were also speculations that pull rates are adjusted based on how often someone pulls, with lower rates for frequent pullers, but there is no conclusive data on that, so this may be just ranting.

Sugo-Fest Exclusive Characters
The major reason to draw rare characters only during Sugo Fests is that only during this event you can recruit Sugo Rare exclusive characters (commonly known as "legends"), which you CANNOT obtain in other ways. The odds of drawing a Sugo-Fest rare are not high, at best they are around 5% and likely, smaller. This exclusive characters are affected by rate up (which means that during an QCK rate up you are more likely to draw a QCK legend than another legend, but it does not mean that the chances of getting a legend is any higher by itself). The following is the list of characters that appear only in Sugo Fests (the list gets periodically updated as a new Sugo Rare character is added every two months or so):

List by time released
This is the list of Sugo exclusives in order they were released. On average, we get one new exclusive a month or so, but there are exceptions, ex. Fujitora was released just a week after Barto, and for some others one and half months lasted (ex. Jinbe - late September, Canvendish - early November). Also, SW Ace + Inthawk both debuted during the 1st Anniversary sugo, on the same day in February. Super Evolved (6+) characters are not listed here as they are not usually available, but if you want to see their chronological release list, see here.

2015 2016 2017
 * Whitebeard (early April)
 * Rayleigh (July 14th-15th)
 * Boa (August 25-26h)
 * Sengoku (Sept 23-24th)
 * Log Luffy (released in Nov 25-26th 2015, retired on May 19th, 2016 19:00 PST, Log Luffy, along with all other Log characters, then re-released under a new name in July 2016, together with Corazon)
 * Shanks (~Dec 25th)
 * Marco (~Jan 20th)
 * SW Ace+Inthawk (~Feb 11th)
 * Sabo (~March 8th)
 * Croc (~April 7th)
 * Lucci (~May 4th)
 * Doffy (~June 28th)
 * Corazon+Log Luffy returns (July ~9th)
 * Barto (August ~5th)
 * Fuji (August ~12th)
 * Jinbe  (Sept ~26th)
 * Cavendish (~Nov 7th)
 * Slasher Law (~Nov 24th)
 * Kizaru (late Dec'16)
 * Aokiji (early Jan '17)
 * Blackbeard (late Jan '17)
 * TimeSkip Luffy (Feb 24-26th)
 * Akainu (March '17)
 * Buggy (April '17)
 * Timeskip Zoro (May '17)
 * Hody (June '17)
 * Striker Law (early August '17)
 * Shirahoshi (late August '17)
 * Inuarashi/Dogstorm (early September '17)
 * Nekomamushi/Cat Viper (late September '17)
 * God Usopp (late September '17)
 * QCK Lucci (early October '17)
 * Magellan (late October '17)
 * 'New' Boa (early Nov '17)
 * Eneru (late Nov'17)
 * Sanji (late Dec'17)
 * Lucy (Feb'18)
 * Vinsmoke Judge (late March '18)

Non-sugo exclusives
Sugo Fest are not the only source of exclusive characters. There are even rarer exclusives which appear only during named, often seasonal events (banners). Those events include (in alphabetical order): Before They Were Famous!, Can't Wait To Be Your Bride!, Christmas Rare Recruit, Fun In The Sun!, Halloween Festival , North Blue Selection, Pirates In Bloom and Sweet Valentine (check those links to see which characters are available). Those banners are usually available only once a year. They may, but are unlikely to, coincide with a Sugo Fest time. The pull rate for those is unknown, but probably the odds of few percent per particular character will be right. Most of those characters are not particularly strong, so with few exceptions they are seen as collectibles.

Since mid-2017 there is another type of exclusive non-Sugo characters, featuring quite strong characters, known as 'limited' (as in, their pull chance is limited to only some events). Further, some other characters are limited to only some Sugos, while others are not available during Sugos at all.

Not available in Sugos ('limited')
 * from 12th Sept 2017: Eustass Kid A Vow in the Great Age of Pirates: Pirate King (Limited Kid)
 * from 29th Sept 2017: Fisher Tiger Sun Pirates Captain
 * from 26th Oct 2017: Big Boss Jinbe Neptune's Army Soldier: Ryugu Kingdom (Limited/Young Jimbe)
 * from 11th Nov 2017: Aokiji "Duel" Victor (Limited Aokiji)
 * from 25th Nov 2017: Kizaru Sojourner from the Sacred Land (Limited Kizaru)
 * from 7th Dec 2017: Akainu Paramount War Hellfire (Limited Akainu)
 * all of the above were available in the New Year Parade event from the +1 pull (Dec. 27th - Jan 10th).

Those are pretty strong 5-stars, but based on it seems the rate of pulling them is no better than for legends during a Sugo (2% or less).

If you are considering whether to pull during non-Sugo exclusives, the general rule of thumb is don't, they are gem traps. Particularly as newer Sugos increasingly come with 'gold only' or 'legend guaranteed after x multipulls', wait a while for those bonuses to come to non-sugo exclusives. (Update: this has happened, as we predicted). As with Sugos, the odds of getting those characters increased. December 2017 featured an event (New Year Parade) where every pull was a limited (XMAS, Halloween, etc.) character, and the +1 was one of the 'limited legends' (Kid, Tiger, etc.). Expect this to happen again, at least once a year, but the odds are not bad like with all good things, this may become more frequent.

And then there are also the new type of limited characters, available only in Sugos that specifically mention them:
 * 24th-26th Oct 2017 (Magellan Sugo): Perona Princess of the Bold Swimsuit
 * 10th-14th Jan 2018 (Vivi Sugo): Nefeltari Vivi Transparent Charm (Limited Vivi v1) and Rob Lucci Silken Seam (Kimono Lucci)
 * Feb 22th-28th 2018 (3rd Anniversary Sugo): Red-Haired Shanks Celebrate the Long Cruise (Anniversary Shanks), Anniversary 'Celebrate the Long Cruise' Boa, Urouge Mercy of 108 Temptations (Kimono Urouge), Nefeltari Vivi Comfortably Elegant Dignitary (Limited Vivi v2/Kimono Vivi).
 * March 15th-24th 2018: Buggy the Clown Unbeatable Chop-Chop Man and Roronoa Zoro East Blue Master Swordsman may or may not be limited, this will be confirmed as soon as we know (comment if you do).

Note: don't confuse limited rare recruits (which cost gems) with promo (give-away) characters available at various points for free (or for clearing some rare events). Check here for a list of such characters.

Not all Sugos are equal (tips on when to pull)
Assuming you want to spend your gems for the biggest impact and can wait a few months, here are some observations and tips.

Short version: pull only during gold only or guranteed legend sugos. Gold-onlys will give you higher average of 'real gold' characters, which at the very least means higher Training Points for the Bazaar. Guaranteed legends means, well, what it means. Best, of course, is when you know what is guaranteed (ex. guaranteed Legend X) to avoid getting dupe legends (more of an issue for players who already have quite a few, of course).

Longer analysis: Note on buying gems: few times a years gems are discounted in the in-game store. If you are going to buy gems, better to save money and buy your gems during that time.
 * Sugos are becoming steadily better over time, for example with the 10+1 (effectively 10% discount) introduced in mid-2016 and after few more months becoming a standard. A bunch of story-mode characters considered generally weak were retired from Rare Recruit around that time too, improving the pool. The next big improvement was a 'guaranteed legend' every x pulls or such. There are also smaller but nice improvements, like guaranteed or a chance for min or max level, pre-filled sockets, max skill levels or coming with starting cotton candy-like boosts.
 * The 'anniversary sugos' celebrating Global release in February each year are considered among the best, but likely the most important feature is anniversary-unrelated gold or not status. Gold-only sugos feature 4-star or better posters (It is still possible to pull an evolved version of a weak 3-star character, but the odds of getting some decent 4-star are much better). They happened so far: early June 2016, late August 2016, late February 2017 (2nd Anni), in early August 2017 and twice in October 2017, so as with all good things, the trend is on the rise. There are also French release anniversaries around summer, but they don't have officially tied-in Sugos. 2016 introduced the 10+1 pulls, but 2017 was not particularly memorable.
 * Different Sugos have different boosted characters. However:
 * the odds of getting a legend are so low, that a small boost doesn't change much. People have been known to spend hundreds of gems doing numerous multi-pulls and not getting any of the boosted legends. Pulling just to get 'legend X', even during 'legend X-boosted Sugo', is a very risky gamble.
 * there are usually two boosts in effect: the individual Sugo boost, and the class/type/theme boost. The only thing you can reasonably assume you'll get after several multi-pulls (let's say, spending 250 gems on 50+5 pulls) are characters affected by both boosts. For example, if there is a STR-boost during Sugo, the odds are decent you'll end up with the STR-boosted Sugo characters. But the non-STR ones are about as much likely to be drawn as various STR ones.
 * Some people have shared results of numerous multipulls on forums like reddit. Consider for example this during Hody's premier Sugo during which the Straw Hats were boosted, and 6 legends were boosted, with Hody having 5x rate: 10 multipulls: no Hody, 5 legends - 4 boosted by Sugo, 1 Straw Hat. 5 multipulls before Sugo-boosted Garp, 6 before Sugo-boosted Elizabello, 9 before completing all newly released Fishman... sure, some others came earlier, but the point is: don't expect 'character X' from a single set of multipulls, and not even a series of them can guarantee you it. Legends in particular are almost impossible to guarantee - do several multipulls and you'll get one or the other, but if you hope for 'legend X', good luck. Be happy when you get something new, and consider saving gems over many months for the best, anniversary events.

Upcoming Sugo-Fest
Add two weeks to the date of the last Sugo-fest from the list above, give or take a day or two.

Also, see a list of Japanese Sugo-Fests here, and please add to it if you can